Shutdown fight in the Senate likely to drag through the weekend

Sentinel

Government Shutdown Negotiations Drag On

On day 38 of the U.S. government shutdown (as of Nov. 7), senators plan to stay in Washington through the weekend for potential votes on a stopgap spending measure to partially fund the government until at least Nov. 21. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated a possible Saturday or Sunday vote, urging Democrats to reengage.

Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, proposed reopening the government in exchange for extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) health care tax credits for a year, amid rising premiums during open enrollment. This could cost $350 billion over 10 years and insure 3.8 million more people, per the Congressional Budget Office. Republicans, including Sens. Mike Rounds and Markwayne Mullin, dismissed it as a "nonstarter" or "absurd," insisting funding must resume first before health care talks. House Speaker Mike Johnson offered no vote guarantee, and former President Trump wants involvement.

A separate 53-43 vote failed on Sen. Ron Johnson's bill to immediately pay federal workers their missed second paycheck (employees are backpaid post-shutdown). Two Georgia Democrats crossed over, but 60 votes were needed. Sen. Gary Peters objected to the bill over fears the Trump administration might misuse funds or fire workers, proposing his own with "guardrails." Johnson countered it doesn't expand presidential powers. The American Federation of Government Employees urged Democrats to support Johnson's bill, warning of deepening financial harm to workers ahead of Thanksgiving.

The Senate has rejected 14 similar measures. Impacts include airport flight cutbacks due to unpaid air traffic controllers, and court-ordered release of $9 billion in SNAP food aid for 42 million people. Democrats, emboldened by midterm wins, demand rehiring of laid-off workers and reject GOP bills without policy concessions like subsidies. Thune lamented Democrats shifting after their Thursday caucus, despite Republican offers for ACA votes and rehiring. Sen. Chris Murphy cited voter rebuke of Trump as reason to stay unified.

Historically, policy-driven shutdowns (e.g., 2013 ACA fight, 2018-19 border wall) have failed, ending without major concessions. Trump posted on social media demanding a deal or filibuster elimination to aid workers.

Ghost

Analysis of the Ongoing U.S. Government Shutdown

Thanks for sharing this update—it's a stark reminder of how partisan gridlock can grind everything to a halt. This scenario paints a picture of escalating tensions in a post-2024 election Congress, with Republicans holding slim majorities but facing Democratic pushback fueled by midterm gains. Let me break it down key highlights, implications, and historical context based on the details you provided.

Key Developments

Timeline and Stalemate: Day 38 (as of Nov. 7) without a resolution. Senators are hunkering down in D.C. for a weekend session, with Majority Leader John Thune eyeing votes on a short-term funding bill to bridge operations until at least Nov. 21. This would be a partial fix, but no one's committing—House Speaker Mike Johnson is noncommittal, and Trump's social media pressure adds urgency (and chaos) by floating ideas like nuking the filibuster.
Democratic Proposal: Led by Chuck Schumer, Dems are tying government reopening to extending ACA premium tax credits for a year. The CBO estimates this at $350B over 10 years, potentially covering 3.8M more people amid rising open-enrollment costs. It's a bold linkage of fiscal must-pass with health policy wins, leveraging public sympathy for affected families.
Republican Response: Dismissive across the board—Sens. Mike Rounds and Markwayne Mullin call it a nonstarter, prioritizing "pay the bills first" before any ACA talks. This echoes classic GOP strategy: avoid concessions that could embolden opponents. Thune's frustration stems from what he sees as Dems hardening after their caucus, despite offers for separate ACA votes and worker rehiring.
Paycheck Protection Fails: Sen. Ron Johnson's bill to backpay federal workers' missed November paycheck fell 53-43, short of the 60-vote cloture threshold. Two Georgia Dems (likely moderates like Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock in a flipped dynamic?) crossed over, but objections from Sens. Gary Peters and others cited risks of executive overreach under a potential Trump admin. Peters' alternative adds "guardrails," but Johnson pushes back. The American Federation of Government Employees is pleading for unity to avoid holiday hardships. This is the 15th rejection of similar measures—frustrating, given the human cost.
Broader Impacts:
- Aviation and Travel: Flight reductions due to unpaid air traffic controllers are biting, especially with holiday travel looming.
- Food Assistance: A court ruling released $9B in SNAP funds for 42M recipients— a rare win amid the mess.
- Worker Fallout: Laid-off feds face deepening woes; Dems demand rehiring as a baseline, rejecting "clean" GOP bills without add-ons like subsidies.

Political Dynamics

Power Shifts: Dems seem emboldened by "midterm wins" (implying they gained ground, perhaps flipping seats or the House narrative), allowing figures like Sen. Chris Murphy to invoke voter "rebuke" of Trump-era tactics. Republicans, with Thune and Johnson in charge, are digging in on fiscal purity but risking backlash over worker pain.
Trump's Shadow: His demands for a deal (or rule changes) highlight ongoing influence, potentially complicating GOP unity if it veers into personal vendettas.
Historical Precedent: As noted, shutdowns tied to policy fights (2013 Obamacare standoff, 2018-19 wall funding) rarely yield big wins for the initiator. They end in exhaustion, with minimal concessions—think temporary CRs (continuing resolutions) that kick the can. Data from past events shows economic hits: $11B in 2018-19, lost productivity, and public blame shifting to the party seen as obstructing.

Potential Outcomes

Short-Term: A bare-bones CR might pass over the weekend if Dems blink, but linking it to ACA could drag into next week. Holiday deadlines (Thanksgiving) add pressure—public opinion polls historically sour on shutdowns after 2-3 weeks.
Longer-Term: Without major movement, expect more court interventions (e.g., on essential services) and economic ripple effects. If Trump pushes for filibuster reform, it could reshape Senate dynamics but alienate moderates. Dems' ACA gambit might fizzle if premiums spike without action, handing Republicans a talking point.

This feels like déjà vu from the Trump era, but with flipped majorities amplifying the drama. If this is based on real-time events, it's evolving fast—check that GovExec link for updates. What aspect are you most curious about: the worker impacts, ACA politics, or how it might resolve? Or is this a hypothetical scenario you'd like me to game out?